The Trinity Study Tables
Table 1: Portfolio Success
Rate: Percentage of all Past Payout Periods From 1926 to
1995 That are Supported by the Portfolio
Note: Numbers
in the table are rounded to the nearest whole percentage.
The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1926
to 1995, inclusively, is 56; 20-year periods, 51; 25-year
periods, 46; 30-year periods, 41. Stocks are represented
by Standard and Poor's 500 Index, and bonds are represented
by long-term, high-grade corporates.
Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.
Portfolio
Composition/
Payout Period |
Withdrawal Rate as a %
of Initial Portfolio Value
|
| 3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
| 100% Stocks |
| 15 Years |
100 |
100 |
98 |
98 |
93 |
91 |
88 |
77 |
63 |
55 |
| 20 Years |
100 |
98 |
96 |
94 |
92 |
84 |
73 |
61 |
47 |
43 |
| 25 Years |
100 |
98 |
96 |
91 |
87 |
78 |
70 |
50 |
43 |
35 |
| 30 Years |
100 |
98 |
95 |
90 |
85 |
78 |
68 |
54 |
49 |
34 |
| 75% Stocks-25% Bonds |
| 15 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
96 |
95 |
91 |
79 |
63 |
46 |
| 20 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
96 |
94 |
88 |
71 |
51 |
41 |
33 |
| 25 Years |
100 |
100 |
98 |
96 |
91 |
78 |
57 |
46 |
33 |
26 |
| 30 Years |
100 |
100 |
98 |
95 |
88 |
73 |
54 |
46 |
37 |
24 |
| 50% Stocks-50% Bonds |
| 15 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
98 |
91 |
71 |
50 |
36 |
| 20 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
96 |
88 |
61 |
41 |
25 |
10 |
| 25 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
98 |
96 |
70 |
43 |
22 |
7 |
0 |
| 30 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
98 |
90 |
51 |
37 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
| 25% Stocks-75% Bonds |
| 15 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
91 |
50 |
21 |
14 |
| 20 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
71 |
24 |
12 |
4 |
2 |
| 25 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
78 |
22 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 30 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
32 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 100% Bonds |
| 15 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
79 |
43 |
38 |
14 |
7 |
| 20 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
96 |
47 |
35 |
16 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
| 25 Years |
100 |
100 |
98 |
52 |
26 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 30 Years |
100 |
100 |
51 |
27 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|