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The Trinity Study Tables
Table 4: Terminal
Value of a $1,000 Portfolio after Annual Withdrawals: All
Payout Periods from 1926 to 1995
Note: Numbers in the table are rounded
to the nearest dollar amount. The number of overlapping 15-year
payout periods from 1926 to 1995, inclusively, is 56; 20-year
periods, 51; 25-year periods, 46; 30-year periods, 41. Based
on all past payout periods, the statistical values for each
case represent the mean, the arithmetic average terminal value;
minimum, the smallest terminal value; 25%, the lower quartile;
median, the 50th percentile; 75%, the upper quartile; and
maximum, the largest terminal value.
Data source: Calculations based on data
from Ibbotson Associates.
|
Portfolio Composition
and Withdrawal Rate
as a % of Initial Portfolio Value
|
| |
75% Stocks -
25 % Bonds
|
50% Stocks -
50 % Bonds
|
25% Stocks -
75% Bonds
|
| Payout
Period |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
| 15 Years |
| Mean |
2964 |
2631 |
2297 |
1970 |
2285 |
1992 |
1698 |
1405 |
1755 |
1496 |
1236 |
977 |
| Minimum |
493 |
249 |
5 |
0 |
855 |
615 |
375 |
135 |
969 |
756 |
542 |
327 |
| 25% |
1567 |
1336 |
1050 |
798 |
1402 |
1186 |
969 |
727 |
1192 |
962 |
735 |
520 |
| Median |
2727 |
2328 |
1909 |
1543 |
2086 |
1770 |
1472 |
1175 |
1422 |
1198 |
951 |
727 |
| 75% |
4487 |
4068 |
3608 |
3213 |
2670 |
2345 |
2045 |
1774 |
1804 |
1568 |
1332 |
1048 |
| Maximum |
6417 |
5919 |
5421 |
4923 |
5554 |
5103 |
4652 |
4202 |
5321 |
4898 |
4474 |
4051 |
| 20 Years |
| Mean |
4239 |
3628 |
3026 |
2435 |
2954 |
2449 |
1944 |
1443 |
2026 |
1606 |
1185 |
765 |
| Minimum |
536 |
108 |
0 |
0 |
975 |
587 |
199 |
0 |
1019 |
744 |
451 |
110 |
| 25% |
2384 |
1849 |
1346 |
915 |
1919 |
1486 |
1056 |
688 |
1407 |
1031 |
670 |
307 |
| Median |
4481 |
3752 |
2914 |
2076 |
2755 |
2291 |
1798 |
1309 |
1505 |
1164 |
824 |
502 |
| 75% |
5618 |
5034 |
4397 |
3554 |
3547 |
3041 |
2561 |
2024 |
2002 |
1573 |
1166 |
758 |
| Maximum |
9484 |
8672 |
7859 |
7047 |
7512 |
6769 |
6025 |
5282 |
5965 |
5168 |
4422 |
3746 |
| 25 Years |
| Mean |
6031 |
4995 |
3991 |
3016 |
3815 |
3007 |
2199 |
1416 |
2307 |
1672 |
1036 |
424 |
| Minimum |
785 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1340 |
655 |
0 |
0 |
1203 |
736 |
269 |
0 |
| 25% |
4138 |
2995 |
2019 |
1223 |
3035 |
2294 |
1447 |
634 |
1626
|
1129
|
643
|
11
|
| Median |
5574 |
4483 |
3710 |
2636 |
3568 |
2706 |
2058 |
1381 |
1850
|
1325
|
787
|
200
|
| 75% |
8016 |
6943 |
5972 |
4295 |
4582 |
3857 |
2930 |
2013 |
2564
|
1714
|
971
|
415
|
| Maximum |
11534 |
10418 |
9301 |
8185 |
8109 |
6624 |
5138 |
3652 |
6795
|
5492
|
4188
|
2997
|
| 30 Years |
| Mean |
9031 |
7367 |
5779 |
4262 |
5171 |
3936 |
2712 |
1553 |
2645
|
1724
|
803
|
122
|
| Minimum |
1497 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2151 |
870 |
0 |
0 |
1428
|
729
|
29
|
0
|
| 25% |
6998 |
5461 |
3490 |
1962 |
4174 |
3200 |
2036 |
730 |
1917
|
1182
|
527
|
0
|
| Median |
8515 |
6868 |
5586 |
3745 |
5171 |
4041 |
2610 |
1251 |
2245 |
1481 |
806 |
0 |
| 75% |
10134 |
9037 |
7804 |
6486 |
6046 |
4541 |
3377 |
2487 |
3399 |
2162 |
964 |
58 |
| Maximum |
16893 |
14980 |
13067 |
11245 |
8423 |
7212 |
6001 |
4790 |
5407 |
3451 |
2080 |
1330 |
|